Polymarket Spent $1 Million on U.S. Prediction Market Ads Last Fall

Polymarket could not offer trading in the U.S. on the 2024 United States presidential election. Still, the prediction market platform spent nearly $1 million on digital advertising to target Facebook and Instagram users in the U.S. last fall, public records show.

Most of the spending was registered to Meta through Blockratize Inc., which does business as Polymarket. The biggest single ad buy in the campaign cost between $175,000 to $200,000. The most common age demographic that saw the ad was the 35-44 range, at about 20% of viewers, and the most common location was Texas at about 9%. Total spending amounted to $980,076, according to records viewed by Sportico.

There is no evidence Polymarket used these ads to push people in the U.S. to illegally circumvent georestrictions and buy prediction market contracts. The way the social copy is written suggests Polymarket wanted to woo passive users who might be interested in viewing contract price movements even if they couldn’t yet participate in markets. Those users might later become paying customers in the event Polymarket returns to the U.S.

“Are you voting for Trump or Kamala?” read the ad copy seen by Sportico. “Download the Polymarket app for FREE today—the most accurate way to track & forecast the election! See for yourself.”

The Peter Thiel-backed company, recently valued above $1 billion, is based in New York but has not permitted transactions in the U.S. since agreeing to pay a $1.4 million penalty to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 for “offering off-exchange event-based binary options contracts and failure to obtain designation as a designated contract market (DCM) or registration as a swap execution facility (SEF).”

Two recent developments have ramped up speculation surrounding Polymarket’s potential U.S. return: The Department of Justice dropped its Joe Biden-era probe into the firm, and Elon Musk’s X became an official partner not long after a reported agreement between the American social media platform and Polymarket rival Kalshi fell through.

Polymarket’s ad strategy on Meta last fall seems to indicate a focus on building foundational ties with U.S. users in the interim period it doesn’t have live markets here.

News coverage contributed to name recognition gains. Polymarket’s availability abroad—and multimillion-dollar election trades from “whales”—made it a major topic of U.S. conversation last fall despite being banned. Its markets projected a strong electoral performance from Republicans, delighting a cohort that now controls Congress and the White House.

Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Like Kalshi, it posts contracts related to sports and pop culture in addition to content tied to elections.

The CFTC currently oversees most prediction markets in the U.S. despite objections from many states and tribes, who view event futures trading as a form of gambling that should not be in the hands of a federal agency built to manage financial asset classes. Once vehemently against election and sports contracts, the CFTC under President Donald Trump has taken a permissive stance. Kalshi and the brokers that partner with it have been the chief beneficiaries.

Heightened competition could arrive soon from the likes of prediction market platforms that operate internationally, such as Polymarket, as well as domestic sportsbook operators looking to get involved.

(This story has been updated in the second paragraph with specific spending details.)